A DISTANT MIRROR

Introductory Note: A Distant Mirror is the title of a book by historian Barbara Tuchman about the Middle Ages, talking about how human nature doesn’t change and we can draw useful lessons from the past – if we would only pay attention. I believe the book is...

The Trend is Your Friend Except at the End

FANG-type (Facebook, Amazon, Netflix, and Google) stocks recently had their worst day ever. Should we care? We shouldn’t care just because they had one bad day, but we should care. Why? Let’s compare it with the last tech drawdown in February 2018. After...

Pike’s Peak?

Somebody must be excited, with markets hitting or beating peak valuations set in 2000. For instance, Enterprise Value/Market Capitalization is near the peak set in March of 2000, and Warren Buffet’s favorite valuation measure, Market Capitalization/GDP, is above...

Time of the Season (Song by the Zombies)

On September 14th, 2007, Northern Rock Bank failed in the UK. Nowadays some people mark that as the beginning of the end of the market boom that had been going on. But at the time no one seemed to much care about a bank failure triggered by the commercial paper market...

Blowin’ In The Wind

Where do we find the answers to the questions we ponder? Do we simply have to look around to find the answers in some book, computer file, Wall Street opinion, Fed pronouncement or media pundit? Or do we have to turn inward and ponder the questions ourselves to find...