Blog

MARKET SIT-REP: QUARTER-END MARCH 2020

This blog is a bit longer than usual, but a lot happened in the first quarter. We started the year with a big party in tech, but around the middle of February people started getting nervous, presumably about Covid-19. Then in early March we saw panic across all asset...

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Lofty Market Vistas

However you want to look at it, the stock market has been having quite a run. The market returned over 30% in 2019, and for the decade 2010-2019 the S&P 500® Index has a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 13.5%, well above the long term average of slightly less...

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Navigating the Market Noise

There was a book written in 2001 by Richard Bernstein titled Navigate the Noise. That certainly seems like an appropriate topic for today's market. With the rise of algorithmic trading and low liquidity (few ready buyers in volume at current prices), it's amazing how...

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The Bull/Bear Dialogue – Part II

In the first Bulls/Bears Dialogue blog I discussed the standard bull/bear cases we hear every day. But I think there is more to consider if we want to build a clearer vision of where the market may be going. To some extent this is speculation on my part, but there has...

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The Bull/Bear Dialogue – Part I

Markets have had quite a year so far. That, of course, has led to a lot of discussion. Are stocks primed for a fall? Bonds? Or is there more juice in the tank? Frankly, it's pretty easy to find bearish arguments. Stocks are now quite expensive historically on many...

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Why Do Investors Use Price to Determine Price?

I feel like I witnessed a sadly common investor behavior tragedy over the last several weeks. Markets kept going up in April for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, probably the primary reason is that people started getting nervous that the market was going up without them. They started trying to figure out why that was.

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