Don't let facts get in the way of a good story. That's what we tend to see towards the end of a bull market, whether we're talking about tulip bulbs, Nifty Fifty stocks of the 1970s, tech stocks in 2000, or our present spate of unicorns (IPO startup stocks with...read more
There was a book written in 2001 by Richard Bernstein titled Navigate the Noise. That certainly seems like an appropriate topic for today's market. With the rise of algorithmic trading and low liquidity (few ready buyers in volume at current prices), it's amazing how...read more
In the first Bulls/Bears Dialogue blog I discussed the standard bull/bear cases we hear every day. But I think there is more to consider if we want to build a clearer vision of where the market may be going. To some extent this is speculation on my part, but there has...read more
Markets have had quite a year so far. That, of course, has led to a lot of discussion. Are stocks primed for a fall? Bonds? Or is there more juice in the tank? Frankly, it's pretty easy to find bearish arguments. Stocks are now quite expensive historically on many...read more
I feel like I witnessed a sadly common investor behavior tragedy over the last several weeks. Markets kept going up in April for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, probably the primary reason is that people started getting nervous that the market was going up without them. They started trying to figure out why that was.read more
I live in a world of macro and fundamentals. The basic reason for this is that I can’t think of a situation where they didn’t inform me of the future. Together, macro and fundamentals can tell us quite a lot about longer term stock market potential.read more
There are two basic ways to invest in the market. You can either stick your finger in the air and invest however the wind is blowing or you can have a process, a lens through which to view a broader spectrum of factors to invest assets. It seems obvious to me which way makes the most sense, but almost any lens has weak spots.read more
Stocks for the Long Run by Jeremy Siegel, first published in 1994, is broadly considered one of the best investment books of all time. As the title implies, the idea is that in the long term, stocks win for compounding wealth. That has certainly broadly been the case, but even Siegel admits that there are limits to the idea.
After such a long economic expansion since 2009, and after the stock market has moved up so much, where should we invest for the long run? Is it safe to invest now, sleep for 10 years, and pocket the profits?read more
We’ve certainly had a rip-roaring start to the year. The first question is, is that deserved?
What happened to create this great start?
Around Christmas, when the market was down about 19% from its September 2018 peak, I wrote a blog urging people not to participate in the market panic that was going on at the time. Was that good advice?read more