Blog

This blog is a bit longer than usual, but a lot happened in the first quarter. We started the year with a big party in tech, but around the middle of February people started getting nervous, presumably about Covid-19. Then in early March we saw panic across all asset...

I last wrote a blog six days ago, on March 12. Now, at March 18, we can more clearly see some important facets of the current financial stresses. First I will outline some of those stresses, and then I will discuss what I think may unfold over the rest of 2020. We...

We want to tell you what we are seeing, and what we are thinking. This will be an overview, and we likely will follow up with additional communications as matters evolve. We have a core investment process we have built, and believe in, to help us manage assets in all...

There's quite a lot going on in the financial markets and in the world - so much that I don't think I can go into great detail. But here are some highlights: On the one hand we have the biggest mix of potential market-impact problems I have seen in my 23-year...

However you want to look at it, the stock market has been having quite a run. The market returned over 30% in 2019, and for the decade 2010-2019 the S&P 500® Index has a CAGR (Compound Annual Growth Rate) of 13.5%, well above the long term average of slightly less...

Don't let facts get in the way of a good story. That's what we tend to see towards the end of a bull market, whether we're talking about tulip bulbs, Nifty Fifty stocks of the 1970s, tech stocks in 2000, or our present spate of unicorns (IPO startup stocks with...

There was a book written in 2001 by Richard Bernstein titled Navigate the Noise. That certainly seems like an appropriate topic for today's market. With the rise of algorithmic trading and low liquidity (few ready buyers in volume at current prices), it's amazing how...

In the first Bulls/Bears Dialogue blog I discussed the standard bull/bear cases we hear every day. But I think there is more to consider if we want to build a clearer vision of where the market may be going. To some extent this is speculation on my part, but there has...

Markets have had quite a year so far. That, of course, has led to a lot of discussion. Are stocks primed for a fall? Bonds? Or is there more juice in the tank? Frankly, it's pretty easy to find bearish arguments. Stocks are now quite expensive historically on many...

I feel like I witnessed a sadly common investor behavior tragedy over the last several weeks. Markets kept going up in April for a variety of reasons. In my opinion, probably the primary reason is that people started getting nervous that the market was going up without them. They started trying to figure out why that was.