Blog

I've spent a lot of time in my recent blogs, and in our current Quarterly Investment Letter, talking over the present economic and stock market situation, but here I want to focus more on what we've done with that information and what our current view is of the...

It's been quite a year and a half. We moved from a quick, harsh recession and stock market decline to an even faster recovery. There seems to be fairly broad agreement that we're currently seeing a lot of peak growth numbers in inflation, GDP, and earnings growth. But...

I want to elaborate why we're positioned the way we are. I think it makes sense to start with where we've come from. For a very long time, we have had a stock market driven by low financing rates. This made any place where you could grow quickly through debt look...

The environment in which we manage investment portfolios is becoming increasingly chaotic. Retail traders are a new force, we have daily jawboning from the Fed reassuring us that “all is well,” and we have nothing but positive Wall Street narratives.  Then we look at...

We're starting to see some of the more obvious issues come out of the heavy government interference we've seen in markets over at least the past decade. What I mean is that we've seen trillions in Fed support and Congressional stimulus, whether you talk about bailouts...

It's been quite a run for the market over the last decade-plus, and after a little break for Covid-19 in the first quarter this year, the party picked right back up to hit new all-time highs. As Adam Button of ForexLive said, more and more people seem to be noting a...

Much has happened over the last three months that has had me regularly shaking my head. I've talked about how ignorance has been bliss with tech companies, but it's also happened elsewhere. For instance, in the last week a number of retail REITs have given quarterly...

An investor asked an important question on our April 28 quarterly conference call: How can anyone have a rigorous investment process when there are so many unknowns out there? I think that's a very complicated question, and I want to go through it in more detail than...

This blog is a bit longer than usual, but a lot happened in the first quarter. We started the year with a big party in tech, but around the middle of February people started getting nervous, presumably about Covid-19. Then in early March we saw panic across all asset...

I last wrote a blog six days ago, on March 12. Now, at March 18, we can more clearly see some important facets of the current financial stresses. First I will outline some of those stresses, and then I will discuss what I think may unfold over the rest of 2020. We...